Conviction Scoring Framework
Our proprietary scoring system evaluates nine critical dimensions, each on a 0-100 scale. Weightings vary by investment stage, asset type, and investor profile, and are fully disclosed in every analysis report.
Market Attractiveness
TAM size, growth trajectory, and market maturity in target geography
Sector Unit Economics
Margin structure, capital intensity, working capital requirements, and cash conversion
Competition Density
Competitive intensity, fragmentation levels, and consolidation likelihood
Regulatory Friction
Licensing requirements, compliance burden, approval timelines, and regulatory stability
Structure and Tax Fitness
Entity structure suitability, tax efficiency, and investor alignment
Time-to-Stability
Months or quarters before normalized operating performance is achieved
Execution Complexity
Management capability, integration effort, organizational change scope, and execution risk
Downside Resilience
Stability in downturns, recurring revenue proportion, and structural downside protection
Exitability
Secondary market liquidity, buyer universe depth, strategic acquisition appeal, and exit timeline
Verdict Mapping
Final verdicts are determined by composite conviction score and align investment recommendations with risk tolerance.
✓ PROCEED
Strong conviction and clear value creation pathway. Recommended for active consideration and portfolio deployment.
⚠ PROCEED WITH CONDITIONS
Moderate conviction with specific conditions. Proceed only if identified conditions are satisfied and documented.
✗ AVOID
Low conviction with material weaknesses. Not recommended for pursuit at current terms and conditions.
Evidence Standards
All conviction scores are supported by sourced evidence across a five-tier confidence hierarchy.
VERIFIED
Government publications, regulatory filings, and third-party audits. Highest confidence in data integrity and independence.
REPORTED
Research firms, industry analysts, and peer-reviewed studies. High confidence in analytical rigor and methodology.
STATED
Management interviews, investor pitches, and official company filings. Medium confidence; requires corroboration with other sources.
ESTIMATED
Directional analysis and inference from related data. Lower confidence; used for triangulation and cross-validation only.
ASSUMED
No independent verification available. Flagged explicitly as assumption; triggers verification workflows and sensitivity analysis.
Horizon Reality Check
Time horizons and stabilization paths vary significantly by deal type. This framework ensures alignment between transaction structure and investor expectations.
| Deal Type | Time to Stabilization | Typical Exit Window | Reality Check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenfield | 9-24 months | 24-48 months | Verify investor patience through stabilization and working capital requirements |
| Acquisition | 2-6 months | 12-36 months | Verify integration timeline aligns with exit window and management capacity |
| Turnaround | 12-36 months | 24-60 months | Verify management capability and market window closure risk during recovery |
| Maintenance | Immediate-6 months | 12-24 months | Verify cash-on-cash return targets are achievable at realistic exit multiples |
Tax Classification Process
Tax treatment is only provided after rigorous classification across four sequential steps. This prevents speculative treatment and ensures defensibility.
Entity Structure Classification
Determine legal entity type and relevant jurisdiction of formation
Jurisdiction Classification
Map applicable tax regimes and treaty considerations
Investor Residency Classification
Establish investor residence and income source characterization
Tax Treatment Statement
Only issued after steps 1-3 completion. Fully documented and sourced.
Core Tax Rule
- Never provide tax treatment without completing all four classification steps
- All treatment statements include source citations and methodology
- Tax advice is informational only; always recommend qualified tax counsel
Financial Realism Rules
Our financial models enforce disciplined assumptions and transparency to avoid projection bias.
Modeling Requirements
- Bottom-up revenue construction required (no top-down extrapolations without justification)
- Three-scenario modeling mandatory: Upside, Base, and Downside cases
- Full assumption transparency with evidence sourcing at each line
- Sanity checks against sector benchmarks and peer performance
Data Freshness Policy
Data quality and timeliness directly impact conviction confidence. We enforce explicit dating and refresh cycles.
Data Standards
- All market data is dated with source citations at point of use
- Data older than 12 months receives lower confidence designation
- Time-sensitive categories (pricing, regulation, market share) trigger verification workflows
- User verification required before applying data to final conviction score
Sector Playbooks
Deep sector expertise shaped into reusable conviction frameworks. Five playbooks currently active with ongoing expansion.
Healthcare
Focus on GCC healthcare infrastructure, demographics-driven demand, regulatory licensing, and medical services consolidation. Key metrics: patient volumes, procedure growth, and regulatory compliance timelines.
Real Estate
Commercial and residential property focused on yield, capital structure, regulatory friction in leasing, and exit liquidity. Key metrics: cap rates, lease duration, and liquidity windows.
Hospitality
Hotels and dining concepts with emphasis on tourism infrastructure, regulatory approvals, and operational complexity. Key metrics: RevPAR, occupancy stability, and management capability.
Technology
SaaS and digital solutions in GCC market with focus on scalability, unit economics, and regulatory environment. Key metrics: CAC payback, churn, and TAM penetration.
Logistics
Supply chain and distribution with emphasis on regional positioning, capital intensity, and consolidation trends. Key metrics: asset utilization, margin stability, and buyer depth.